On the surface of it, the Montreal Canadiens lineup entering the 2019/20 season does not appear much different from the one that narrowly missed the playoffs by two points in 2018/19. As other Eastern Conference teams reinforced their teams this offseason, the question remains whether the Habs have done enough to contend for a playoff spot.
The Canadiens did move on from Jordie Benn (who signed with Vancouver as a free agent), Antii Niemi (who signed with Jokerit of the KHL) and Andrew Shaw. The Habs sent Andrew Shaw to the Chicago Blackhawks for 2nd (2020), 3rd (2021) and 7th (2020) round picks. The incoming players include netminder Keith Kinkaid, depth defenseman Ben Chiarot and checking centreman, Nick Cousins.
Most notably, the Habs signed centre Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet of 5 years, worth $8.454 million per season. The Carolina Hurricanes emphatically matched the contract, retained Aho, and openly mocked the Canadiens in doing so. In the aftermath, there was much derision from members of the hockey media and fans of opposing teams on social media. It was felt that the Habs did not make a serious attempt at an offer sheet, that the annual salary being offered was too low, and the terms being far too easy for Carolina to match.
The Canadiens made a shrewd and calculated gamble in tendering Aho the offer sheet that they did. They identified a player that fills a need, as a young, slick, skilled, playmaking number one centre. They also identified a team that they judged to potentially have money problems in Carolina. While owner Tom Dundon is a billionaire, he recently had troubles with the folding of the Alliance of American Football, a project he purportedly invested $70 million into and subsequently lost. Furthermore, Dundon has proved to be notoriously cheap at building his hockey club, dismissing previous Canes’ General Manager, Ron Francis, over contract demands, which were meagre by all accounts. The Canadiens structured their offer sheet in a way that upon signing, Aho was due a $21 million dollar signing bonus. It was a financial stress test for Dundon if there ever was one.
Based on the comments Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin made on 1 July, the team did not feel that going up in terms of annual salary (AAV) would have made significant difference whether Carolina would match the offer. At $8.454 million, the compensation was a first, second and third round pick. Had they gone up in AAV, they would have had to surrender an additional first round pick. Had they gone up to an AAV of $10.6 million, the compensation would have been quite steep, at four first round picks.
On a five year deal (which Aho signed, and what most RFAs are thought to be interested in, after Auston Matthews signed a five year contract with the Maple Leafs), surrendering two to four first round picks would have been a steep price. This is of particular importance in an NHL where even good teams can have an anomalous season, miss the playoffs, and find themselves in the NHL Draft Lottery. Increasing the AAV also would not have substantially changed the bonus structure.
The Canadiens made the offer, it got matched, and the saga was closed. It was a worthwhile attempt, and though unsuccessful it showed the Canadiens intent in wanting to acquire talent through different means. The Canadiens have failed repeatedly in luring the glamour unrestricted free agent to Montreal, chiefly due to factors out of its control, including poor weather, the highest tax rate in the league, and the NHL players’ general disdain for having to live in a city where English is not the only language.
Yet, there remains the question of whether the Canadiens are actually a better hockey team heading into this season.
The loss of Andrew Shaw cannot be understated. When Shaw was signed to a six year contract, worth $3.9 million per season in 2016, few would have given Marc Bergevin credit for spending his money wisely. Over three seasons with the Canadiens, Shaw did not once appear in more than 70 games in a season . He has also experienced a series of concussions over this span, which limited his effectiveness.
Yet, this past season, he managed a career high in assists and points (47 pts in 63 games), largely playing alongside Max Domi. He was incredibly 25th in the NHL in 5 on 5 goals per 60, and the Canadiens controlled 60% of high danger attempts when he was on the ice. By all accounts, Shaw was also the classic “glue guy” in the Canadiens room, with many young players sharing stories on how the veteran helped them get acquainted to life in the professional game.
Shaw was deemed expendable, as the Canadiens who had ample salary cap room over the last three seasons, will come into a cap crunch in the summer of 2021, with many key contracts expiring including those to Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ryan Poehling, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Jeff Petry. There may have been no better time to move on from Shaw, after a career season, but his loss remains significant.
Nick Cousins was brought in as a free agent signing from Arizona, for a one year, $1 million deal. Cousins offensive production pales in comparison to Shaw, but perhaps the edge that he plays with may help placate the fans that usually fawn over such attributes.
The swap of Jordie Benn for Ben Chiarot may also be a bit of a downgrade on defense. The 28 year old Chiarot was signed after spending his entire career with the Winnipeg Jets. He signed a three year contract, with an annual cap figure of $3.5 million. For much of last season, Chiarot was partnered with Dustin Byfuglien, and he hit career highs in games played (78) and points (20). Additionally, when Chiarot was paired with Byfuglien, his contributions were positive (>50% CF), a number which fell off substantially when he was with other partners.
Chiarot is a big, physical, relatively immobile defender, who head coach Claude Julien will hope can clear out the persistent traffic in front of Carey Price’s goal. The concern is that he carries a relatively large cap hit for what he provides, and is signed beyond the dreaded summer of 2021. This point is especially hard to swallow, since Jordie Benn signed a two year deal with the Canucks for $2 million per season. It is quite difficult to look at both players and suggest that Chiarot will be significantly better than Benn, considering their offensive numbers and defensive attributes are quite similar.
The Canadiens also brought in netminder Keith Kinkaid, to serve as backup netminder for Carey Price. Last season, Anti Niemi, who had surprised the Habs with his play in 2017/18, had a series of gaffe prone performances, causing Claude Julien to lose complete trust in him. As the Canadiens chased a playoff spot down the stretch, Julien played Carey Price in 28 of the team’s final 29 games, including in four back to back situations, where normally the club’s backup would have provided a start.
Kinkaid was a standout with the New Jersey Devils in 2017/18, when he took over starting duties briefly after injury besieged Cory Schneider. He played 41 games, posted a respectable .913 save percentage, and was critical in helping the Devils clinch a post season berth. Last season however was a different story, and his numbers crumbled. Kinkaid posted a .891 save percentage, was traded to Columbus at the trade deadline, and failed to inspire coach John Tortorella. The Jackets paid the Devils a 5th round pick for Kinkaid, and literally received nothing from him, as he did not feature a single second.
At a one year deal worth $1.75 million, the Canadiens hope that Kinkaid can recapture his form from 2017/18, and help provide Price with some relief, and allow their star to make no more than 55-60 starts.
It remains uncertain whether these personnel changes truly make the Canadiens a better team heading into this coming season. With an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division, featuring strong contenders, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston, and a burgeoning power in Florida with new head coach, Joel Quenneville, the Canadiens will need to see the emergence and continual development of their young players, like Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Victor Mete, who may need to play more important roles. Rookie Ryan Poehling, who notched a hat trick in his first and only NHL game, may make the club and surprise, but as a whole, any contribution from him would be viewed as a bonus.
I remain skeptical whether this is a playoff team for this coming year, but with the Canadiens burgeoning prospect pipeline, being a consistently competitive team in the years to come is on the cards. Hopefully before the Stanley Cup drought reaches 30 years.
Jaideep Kanungo
Jaikan Sport 