After only eighteen games played this season, the Montreal Canadiens announced this morning that they have fired head coach Claude Julien and his beleaguered powerplay guru, Kirk Muller.
In the hours that have passed, a debate roiling around this decision is whether this is a surprise, and whether the Canadiens have been too reactionary to their latest string of poor results and have been unfair to Julien, who has been the coach for the Canadiens since February 2017.
It is hard to evaluate this decision without the appropriate context. Given the situation that the Canadiens find themselves in, a period in which they have lost six of their last eight games, and have careened down the North Division standings, I cannot say that I am too surprised. In fact, in discussions with other friends that support the Canadiens in recent days, this very situation was discussed. Ultimately, the decision arose from the fact that this slump is not an isolated event, and harkens back to similar happenings that Julien could not resolve a year ago.
This season, the Canadiens started the first ten games of the season 7-1-2, obtaining 16 points and keeping pace with the Toronto Maple Leafs for first place in the North Division. During that time, they played a swashbuckling brand of hockey; rolling all four forward lines, receiving balanced scoring (scoring 44 goals in that span) from all parts of the lineup, and completely suffocating their opposition with an aggressive forecheck and pace through the neutral zone.
The Canadiens have played with this pulsating, high tempo system on and off since the start of the 2018/19 season, and I wrote a post to share my excitement for how the team may finally sustain this physically taxing style over the shortened 56 game schedule.
As is often the case, the first ten games provided us with only a limited sample of what the Canadiens could accomplish. In those ten games in particular, the problem is that the Canadiens played the Vancouver Canucks five times.
The Canucks were unable to matchup against the Canadiens, and in many of those games, were completely overwhelmed, unable to deal with the Habs’ forechecking pressure. The Canadiens went 4-0-1 and outscored the Canucks 28-15. Through the sheer mental attrition of facing the same opponent so frequently in a short period of time, the Canucks were clearly worn out and demoralized.
The grandiosity that came from beating up the Canucks in such a manner, came to a crashing halt over the subsequent eight games, as the Canadiens have gone 2-4-2 (6 points), a span that has seen them lose three times to the lowly Ottawa Senators. Most concerning of all is that the Canadiens dominant style of play, where they play with pace, balance, an aggressive forecheck, and on the front foot has given way to a more reactive, less aggressive (shooting more from the point) and more mistake prone game (2nd most penalized team in the league), that has been compounded by subpar special teams (20th ranked powerplay, 22nd ranked penalty kill) and below average goaltending from Carey Price.
In the end, Marc Bergevin was forced into making this decision today. Bergevin has been at the helm of the Canadiens since the end of the 2012 season, and during that span, has made the playoffs outright only four times. If the Canadiens miss the playoffs this season, it will represent four straight season that the team has failed to meet this minimum expectation (NOTE: last season’s bubble playoff is hard to count as a playoff appearance, considering the Canadiens were considerably behind the 8th seed in the East when the season was suspended). Although Bergevin has earned plaudits for his trades over the last few seasons, this abject record is a difficult one to justify, especially in a market that was once accustomed to winning and celebrates how high the standards are.
Given the overall level of mediocrity, it is conceivable that if the Canadiens miss the playoffs this season, that Geoff Molson will finally fire Bergevin in the end (of note, Bergevin is signed until the summer of 2022).
Since the disastrous season of 2017-18, Bergevin has led the Canadiens down a great “reset,” restocking the club with young players and draft picks, and the Canadiens once again have the highest number of draft picks of any team, in the upcoming 2021 NHL Draft. Yet, while restocking his cupboard has been a priority, Bergevin is also in the precarious position of having to “win now”, as both Carey Price and Shea Weber, his two highest priced players, are rapidly nearing the end of their peak performance years (though many skeptics contend that both are well past their expiration date already).
After last summer’s performance in the bubble, where the Canadiens defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins to advance to the playoffs, and where they put up a strong six game struggle against the Philadelphia Flyers, Bergevin strengthened a team that looked capable of competing. He added pieces to reinforce the team, in bringing in scorers Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli, depth on defense in Joel Edmundson, and a goaltender that could truly give Carey Price some rest, in Jake Allen. It was also expected that centres Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi were ready to build on their strong performances in the bubble.
Reasonably, the expectations for the Canadiens were raised, and many prognosticators projected that the team would compete with the Maple Leafs for the top spot in the North Division. It all started well enough, the pomposity was in full force, but that has all but since deflated over the last three weeks.
Bergevin’s decision to fire Julien needs to be understood in the context of what happened last season. After barely missing out on the playoffs in the final weekend of the regular season in 2019, the Canadiens started the 2019-20 season reasonably well, posting a record of 11-5-3 in their first 19 games. On the night of their 19th game however, they lost both Jonathan Drouin and Paul Byron to long term injuries, and the Canadiens promptly lost their next eight games in succession.
The team would lose eight games in a row for a second time, in a period just after Christmas, and it derailed any aspirations that the team would make the playoffs. Of note, the team lost all four games last season to the worst team in the league, the Detroit Red Wings.
Those eight game stretches were difficult, and it seemed that the team played well in parts, but not well enough. Aside from replacing injured players in the lineup, Julien made very little changes, and was unable to conjure a response in any manner that could have salvaged the season. The play became static, bereft of the speed and control that marked the team’s high point, and the special teams continued to lag. By the time he did, the Canadiens were lapped by their rivals in the Atlantic Division, and could never recover.
Fast forward to this season, and the same “negative energy” (as labelled by captain Shea Weber) and lack of response has been spiraling around the Canadiens. Last night, with the Canadiens having lost five of their last seven games, and needing a more urgent performance against an objectively inferior and inexperienced opponent, found themselves dominated by the Ottawa Senators for the first 15 minutes, and trailing 2-0 (before Shea Weber scored in the 16th minute).
It was in sports’ parlance a “statement game,” and after being outshot 19-9 in the second period, to their credit, the Canadiens responded in the third, outshooting the Sens 12-4, and ending regulation with a 4-4 tie.
Ultimately the Canadiens controversially lost (a last second winner by Brendan Gallagher was ruled out due to a dubious goaltender interference review), and as they have been passed in the standings by the Oilers and the Jets in recent days, the pressure has been mounting. The system that they surprised and overwhelmed their opponents with is no longer novel, and the trend of taking more shots from the opposition blue line is alarmingly similar to how the Canadiens played during their eight game losing streaks a year ago.
The urgency feels even more intense this season, in a divisional format in which every game feels part of a zero-sum game, and every loss is doubly felt. Given the level of expectation at the start of the season, Bergevin truly felt this was an opportunity to conquer the Canadian division with a deep team, get a place in the NHL’s “final four” and mount a serious challenge for the Stanley Cup. Sitting on his hands any longer would have jeopardized that opportunity.
In the end, it is sad to see Claude Julien leave again (he was fired in 2006 by Bob Gainey, the general manager of the Canadiens at the time). Although over four years with the Canadiens, in this tenure, his teams were mostly mediocre in the standings, they performed well on 5 v 5 metrics, appeared to have some structure, but were sunk by atrocious special teams (26th in the powerplay and 29th on the penalty kill during his time) and the lack of an elite offensive star finisher.
In comes, Dominique Ducharme, a young coach who has been an assistant to Julien for the last two seasons, who has an excellent track record coaching in Canadian major junior hockey (with Halifax and Drummondville) and the Canadian World Junior team. Of course, without NHL head coaching experience, it will be a tall order replace a veteran like Julien, who brought structure to the Canadiens over his four years. Ducharme also inherits the same plagued special teams and struggling Carey Price that finally felled Julien.
If Ducharme can bring the Canadiens out of the struggle that they are currently mired in, he can salvage the season and we can all carry on. If he cannot, then almost assuredly, Marc Bergevin will be joining Claude Julien as another casualty of 2021, for his repeated failures in leading the Canadiens to prominence.
Jaideep Kanungo