Tag: hockey

On Canadiens: Early season success owes to a deep forward corps

We have certainly been here before.

As fans of the Montreal Canadiens, we are not unfamiliar to our beloved club starting the season off with a searing pace. We are collectively turned into chest thumping optimists, replete with incidental facts that somehow tie this current iteration to the teams that lived through the unexpected glories of 1986 or 1993. The day dreaming of a long coveted Stanley Cup parade down Rue Ste-Catherine, makes us glance ahead into our calendars to June, to ensure that we will have the free time to attend.

We went through this in 2015, when after a Hart and Vezina Trophy winning campaign from Carey Price, the Canadiens won their first nine games of the season. The following year, the Habs were 9-0-1 before losing their first game in regulation (which history will also remember, as it arrived in the form of a 10-0 loss to the perpetual cannon-fodder that are the Columbus Blue Jackets).

In each of those years, the team’s sheen and place in the standings eventually faded, the Canadiens were besieged by some misfortune (an injury to Carey Price, or a complete level of underperformance which led to the firing of a coach midseason) and the season ended as it always does (for the last 26 years at least)… in disappointment.

Yet somehow, this year feels different. A cynic would be absolutely right in noting that we say this every year, but somehow this season actually does feel different.

The Canadiens have surged to 10 points after six games, and are tied for first place atop the North Division with the heavily favoured Toronto Maple Leafs. They have yet to lose a game in regulation time, have yet to be outshot in regulation time, and currently sit first in the league in ‘goals for’ in the entire NHL (18). They are 4th in the league for team CF% (54.7), an area that they have remained strong since the start of the 2018-19 season. All of this has been accomplished without the team playing a single game in Montreal.

In previous years, one could point to the towering bulwark that is Carey Price, and pin the team’s success solely on the work of their star netminder. Yet, thus far this season, Price has not been at his quintessential best. Price and his backup Jake Allen (who has featured in two games) have a combined 5 v 5 save percentage of .913, which sits firmly around league average. In truth, both netminders could have made saves on some of the goals that they have conceded so far, but uncharacteristically, the Canadiens’ impressive offensive numbers have made this less essential.

Also uncharacteristic is that the team has been mired with a streak of indiscipline, having been penalized 28 times, which is 3rd most in the league. The Canadiens took nine penalties on 21 January in Vancouver, a day after the team took six against the Canucks. That evening, coach Claude Julien spent much of the post game conference espousing how the team had to be much more disciplined. For a team that plays much of the game on the front foot, and dictates the pace of play, this fact is somewhat astonishing. One could reasonably expect, that this issue can be improved upon as the season progresses.

Ultimately, what has given the Canadiens the ability to open the season with such verve has been the balanced contributions of the Canadiens’ four forward lines, in terms of point production and distribution of work load.

The steady trio of Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher has been well documented as being the lynchpin for the Canadiens’ attack in the two previous seasons, but this year, the growth of Nick Suzuki as a legitimate playmaking, and reliable two way centreman (flanked by Jonathan Drouin and Josh Anderson), and the emergence of Jesperi Kotkaniemi (who plays alongside Joel Armia and Tyler Toffoli) as a solid NHL player has given the Canadiens’ offense a level of depth that they have not had in decades.

All three of these lines have proven that they can play in all situations, and are in the the positive ledger of puck possession at 5 v 5, with Danault demonstrating a CF% 55.5, Suzuki 53.2 and Kotkaniemi 61.1% (stats via Natural Stat Trick). On a nightly basis, the Canadiens have also had different offensive stars emerge and carry the burden.

Against Toronto on opening night, it was the speed baron Josh Anderson (two goals) and nifty playmaker Jonathan Drouin (3 assists) who provided the offensive thrust. In two games in Edmonton against the Oilers, Jeff Petry and Tomas Tatar each scored twice, the Canadiens’ scored two short handed goals (from Artturi Lehkonen and Jake Evans) and saw the first goal of Alexander Romanov’s burgeoning career. In three games in Vancouver against the Canucks, the team was led by the offensive explosion of Tyler Toffoli who notched five goals in the first two of those games, against his former club.

Not yet mentioned has been the emergence of the Canadiens’ fourth line as a reliable and high energy trio. Jake Evans, in his second NHL season, has become a revelation and has been trusted by Claude Julien to provide key minutes on the penalty kill, and take defensive zone faceoffs. His linemates, of Artturi Lehkonen and Paul Byron, flank him with veteran presence, that gives coach Julien the confidence to not only play, but to control, regular shifts.

The Canadiens’ balance through their forward ranks is evidenced by the fact that Nick Suzuki leads in ice time with 17:33. Paul Byron is the least played forward at 11:53 (this also comes after he took a Shea Weber slap shot to his foot on 21 January, and missed the final half of the third period). Compared to North Division rivals Edmonton and Vancouver (who the Canadiens have faced in five of six games), the Canadiens forward corps usage is far more spread out. The Oilers have three forwards that play on average over 21 minutes each game (McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins), while the Canucks have four forwards (Horvat, Boeser, Miller and Pettersson) that play more than 18 minutes.

For the time being, Julien has been able to exploit this advantage, as he has rolled four lines at regular intervals, ensuring that the Canadiens play with consistent pace and intensity. Over the last two seasons, the Habs have been at their best when they have been able to play with this aggressive forecheck/reload system, which allows the team to persistently harangue opposition defense with unyielding pressure, create turnovers, and pin their opponent in the defensive zone for several minutes at a time. Over the first six games, the Canadiens were able to suffocate their opponents in this manner, and particularly against the Oilers and Canucks, it completely demoralized them for subsequent game (s).

At the best of times, lacking discipline is a recipe for disaster. Not only is the opposition afforded a powerplay and an improved opportunity to score, but it also impedes with the flow of the game, and displaces many skilled forwards that do not contribute to the penalty killing efforts, away from a regular shift. When penalties stack up, teams can see their offensive stars out of the rhythm of the action for several minutes, and it threatens to throw all the line combinations out of sync. Although the Canadiens have had moments of penalties stacked upon one another this season, they have a full complement of forwards that can effectively kill penalties. Julien has used seven forwards on the penalty kill so far, using pairings of Danault/Lehkonen, Evans/Byron, Suzuki/Armia, with Toffoli as an extra. This has allowed the team to return to 5 v 5 play without a loss in vim.

The depth in the forward ranks has also ensured appropriate coverage for injury, which the Canadiens have unfortunately had to deal with in the past week. Joel Armia scored four points against the Canucks on 21 January, and had his best game of the season, but suffered a concussion in the closing moments from an egregious and unnecessary hit from the Canucks’ woeful defender Tyler Myers. In previous years, an injury of this magnitude to an important player that provides terrific effort on the forecheck, and work on the penalty kill, would have been a sizeable blow. However, the Canadiens replaced him with a decorated veteran in Corey Perry, who fit into the lineup admirably, generated a few scoring chances and scored in his first game. The Canadiens’ also have the peripatetic utilityman Michel Frolik and 2017 1st round pick, Ryan Poehling, in their reserves. These players continue to train with the team on a daily basis, as part of the travelling taxi squad.

Having played three of the six opponents that they will face over the course of this regular season, the Canadiens have proven to themselves that not only can they compete in the North Division, but that they have a decided advantage through the depth that they possess. This advantage manifests fully when the Canadiens play an opposition in back to back, or three in a row situations, as they physically and mentally overwhelm through their speed and intensity. Provided that they can remain healthy, the Canadiens should be able to use this advantage to its full extent as the attrition of this season mounts.

So in the end, while Canadiens fans have been here plenty of times before, standing atop the mountain after a handful of games, boasting that Lord Stanley will once again return to its eternal resting place, only to have those delusions end abruptly, this time surely feels different. For the first time in a long time, the Canadiens appear to be well built, and capable of coping with the duress of a long season.

Jaideep Kanungo

Friends with Opinions Podcast: Episode 22 and 23

I had the great pleasure of joining my friend Ahmad Ghahary on his Friends With Opinions, Hockey Podcast this past weekend.

In Episode 22, we discussed the abject marketing efforts made by the NHL in recent years, how it compares to other professional sports and where the game is headed as a result.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy82Y2QzMDI0L3BvZGNhc3QvcnNz&episode=NjcwNDdiZWYtNTgxMC03YjNjLWY2YmUtODMzZjJmMjdkZGFl&hl=en-CA&ep=6&at=1568064509820

In Episode 23, we discussed the stalemate that currently exists between restricted free agents and their NHL teams, how we foresee this will impact the coming season, and the broader implications that these squabbles will have on the sport.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy82Y2QzMDI0L3BvZGNhc3QvcnNz&episode=MmY4YWNkYmItM2I4Ni1jMzcwLWVjYTYtMmQ5OWI4YjhhYjQy&hl=en-CA&ep=6&at=1568064334300

We also recorded another episode last evening, where we explore the issues with the Montreal Canadiens heading into training camp later this week. Look forward to a link to that discussion on the podcast page, when it becomes available.

Please have a listen to Ahmad’s reverential podcast! For those that are not necessarily hockey fans, there are some rumours that he might be exploring other content this coming year! (stay tuned!)

Jaideep Kanungo

On Canadiens: Are the Habs better off compared to last season?

On the surface of it, the Montreal Canadiens lineup entering the 2019/20 season does not appear much different from the one that narrowly missed the playoffs by two points in 2018/19. As other Eastern Conference teams reinforced their teams this offseason, the question remains whether the Habs have done enough to contend for a playoff spot.

The Canadiens did move on from Jordie Benn (who signed with Vancouver as a free agent), Antii Niemi (who signed with Jokerit of the KHL) and Andrew Shaw. The Habs sent Andrew Shaw to the Chicago Blackhawks for 2nd (2020), 3rd (2021) and 7th (2020) round picks. The incoming players include netminder Keith Kinkaid, depth defenseman Ben Chiarot and checking centreman, Nick Cousins.

Most notably, the Habs signed centre Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet of 5 years, worth $8.454 million per season. The Carolina Hurricanes emphatically matched the contract, retained Aho, and openly mocked the Canadiens in doing so. In the aftermath, there was much derision from members of the hockey media and fans of opposing teams on social media. It was felt that the Habs did not make a serious attempt at an offer sheet, that the annual salary being offered was too low, and the terms being far too easy for Carolina to match.

The Canadiens made a shrewd and calculated gamble in tendering Aho the offer sheet that they did. They identified a player that fills a need, as a young, slick, skilled, playmaking number one centre. They also identified a team that they judged to potentially have money problems in Carolina. While owner Tom Dundon is a billionaire, he recently had troubles with the folding of the Alliance of American Football, a project he purportedly invested $70 million into and subsequently lost. Furthermore, Dundon has proved to be notoriously cheap at building his hockey club, dismissing previous Canes’ General Manager, Ron Francis, over contract demands, which were meagre by all accounts. The Canadiens structured their offer sheet in a way that upon signing, Aho was due a $21 million dollar signing bonus. It was a financial stress test for Dundon if there ever was one.

Based on the comments Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin made on 1 July, the team did not feel that going up in terms of annual salary (AAV) would have made significant difference whether Carolina would match the offer. At $8.454 million, the compensation was a first, second and third round pick. Had they gone up in AAV, they would have had to surrender an additional first round pick. Had they gone up to an AAV of $10.6 million, the compensation would have been quite steep, at four first round picks.

On a five year deal (which Aho signed, and what most RFAs are thought to be interested in, after Auston Matthews signed a five year contract with the Maple Leafs), surrendering two to four first round picks would have been a steep price. This is of particular importance in an NHL where even good teams can have an anomalous season, miss the playoffs, and find themselves in the NHL Draft Lottery. Increasing the AAV also would not have substantially changed the bonus structure.

The Canadiens made the offer, it got matched, and the saga was closed. It was a worthwhile attempt, and though unsuccessful it showed the Canadiens intent in wanting to acquire talent through different means. The Canadiens have failed repeatedly in luring the glamour unrestricted free agent to Montreal, chiefly due to factors out of its control, including poor weather, the highest tax rate in the league, and the NHL players’ general disdain for having to live in a city where English is not the only language.

Yet, there remains the question of whether the Canadiens are actually a better hockey team heading into this season.

The loss of Andrew Shaw cannot be understated. When Shaw was signed to a six year contract, worth $3.9 million per season in 2016, few would have given Marc Bergevin credit for spending his money wisely. Over three seasons with the Canadiens, Shaw did not once appear in more than 70 games in a season . He has also experienced a series of concussions over this span, which limited his effectiveness.

Yet, this past season, he managed a career high in assists and points (47 pts in 63 games), largely playing alongside Max Domi. He was incredibly 25th in the NHL in 5 on 5 goals per 60, and the Canadiens controlled 60% of high danger attempts when he was on the ice. By all accounts, Shaw was also the classic “glue guy” in the Canadiens room, with many young players sharing stories on how the veteran helped them get acquainted to life in the professional game.

Shaw was deemed expendable, as the Canadiens who had ample salary cap room over the last three seasons, will come into a cap crunch in the summer of 2021, with many key contracts expiring including those to Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ryan Poehling, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Jeff Petry. There may have been no better time to move on from Shaw, after a career season, but his loss remains significant.

Nick Cousins was brought in as a free agent signing from Arizona, for a one year, $1 million deal. Cousins offensive production pales in comparison to Shaw, but perhaps the edge that he plays with may help placate the fans that usually fawn over such attributes.

The swap of Jordie Benn for Ben Chiarot may also be a bit of a downgrade on defense. The 28 year old Chiarot was signed after spending his entire career with the Winnipeg Jets. He signed a three year contract, with an annual cap figure of $3.5 million. For much of last season, Chiarot was partnered with Dustin Byfuglien, and he hit career highs in games played (78) and points (20). Additionally, when Chiarot was paired with Byfuglien, his contributions were positive (>50% CF), a number which fell off substantially when he was with other partners.

Chiarot is a big, physical, relatively immobile defender, who head coach Claude Julien will hope can clear out the persistent traffic in front of Carey Price’s goal. The concern is that he carries a relatively large cap hit for what he provides, and is signed beyond the dreaded summer of 2021. This point is especially hard to swallow, since Jordie Benn signed a two year deal with the Canucks for $2 million per season. It is quite difficult to look at both players and suggest that Chiarot will be significantly better than Benn, considering their offensive numbers and defensive attributes are quite similar.

The Canadiens also brought in netminder Keith Kinkaid, to serve as backup netminder for Carey Price. Last season, Anti Niemi, who had surprised the Habs with his play in 2017/18, had a series of gaffe prone performances, causing Claude Julien to lose complete trust in him. As the Canadiens chased a playoff spot down the stretch, Julien played Carey Price in 28 of the team’s final 29 games, including in four back to back situations, where normally the club’s backup would have provided a start.

Kinkaid was a standout with the New Jersey Devils in 2017/18, when he took over starting duties briefly after injury besieged Cory Schneider. He played 41 games, posted a respectable .913 save percentage, and was critical in helping the Devils clinch a post season berth. Last season however was a different story, and his numbers crumbled. Kinkaid posted a .891 save percentage, was traded to Columbus at the trade deadline, and failed to inspire coach John Tortorella. The Jackets paid the Devils a 5th round pick for Kinkaid, and literally received nothing from him, as he did not feature a single second.

At a one year deal worth $1.75 million, the Canadiens hope that Kinkaid can recapture his form from 2017/18, and help provide Price with some relief, and allow their star to make no more than 55-60 starts.

It remains uncertain whether these personnel changes truly make the Canadiens a better team heading into this coming season. With an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division, featuring strong contenders, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston, and a burgeoning power in Florida with new head coach, Joel Quenneville, the Canadiens will need to see the emergence and continual development of their young players, like Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Victor Mete, who may need to play more important roles. Rookie Ryan Poehling, who notched a hat trick in his first and only NHL game, may make the club and surprise, but as a whole, any contribution from him would be viewed as a bonus.

I remain skeptical whether this is a playoff team for this coming year, but with the Canadiens burgeoning prospect pipeline, being a consistently competitive team in the years to come is on the cards. Hopefully before the Stanley Cup drought reaches 30 years.

Jaideep Kanungo